Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-3-0Record18-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
70"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Barata MMATeamFight Club Akhmat

What's at stake

Bryce Mitchell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Said Nurmagomedov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bryce MitchellNow 1776
If they win+14→ 1790
If they lose-18→ 1758
Said NurmagomedovNow 1723
If they win+18→ 1741
If they lose-14→ 1709

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1700 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1690 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
3.08
59%
Strike accuracy
49%
1.60
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.05
59%
Strike defense
56%
3.24
Takedown avg.
0.86
36%
Takedown accuracy
15%
33%
Takedown defense
63%
1.19
Submission avg.
1.15

Trajectory

Bryce MitchellSaid Nurmagomedov
17502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (5%)
KO/TKO
4 (22%)
10 (53%)
Submission
6 (33%)
8 (42%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Bryce Mitchell77%
Said Nurmagomedov 23%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Bryce Mitchell a 77% favorite over Said Nurmagomedov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Bryce Mitchell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1776 to 1723, a 53-point edge.

Bryce Mitchell enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Said Nurmagomedov enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Bryce Mitchell finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Said Nurmagomedov 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.