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Combat Edge Intelligence

Cássio Barão vs Mark Choinski

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

10-2-1Record8-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
71"ReachN/A
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Dyogo Teles MMATeamRoufusport· 1687 avg Elo · 8 rated

What's at stake

Mark Choinski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Cássio Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cássio BarãoNow 1622
If they win+17→ 1639
If they lose-15→ 1607
Mark ChoinskiNow 1639
If they win+23→ 1662
If they lose-25→ 1614

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
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Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
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Strike defense
Not available
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
Not available
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Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Cássio BarãoMark Choinski
1550160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (40%)
KO/TKO
1 (13%)
5 (50%)
Submission
5 (63%)
1 (10%)
Decision
2 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Cássio Barão60%
Mark Choinski 40%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Cássio Barão a 60% favorite over Mark Choinski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mark Choinski's way (48%).

Mark Choinski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1622, a 17-point edge.

Cássio Barão finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Mark Choinski 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.