Caio Borralho vs Jared Cannonier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-2-0Record18-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
75"Reach 77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
The Fighting Nerds· 1712 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Caio Borralho is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Jared Cannonier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1801
If they lose-20→ 1769
If they win+20→ 1713
If they lose-12→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1762 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Caio BorralhoJared Cannonier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caio Borralho79%
Jared Cannonier 21%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Caio Borralho a 79% favorite over Jared Cannonier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Caio Borralho holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1789 to 1693, a 96-point edge.
Jared Cannonier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Caio Borralho finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Jared Cannonier 72%.
Caio Borralho and Jared Cannonier share 1 common opponent: Nassourdine Imavov.
Jared Cannonier carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.