Combat Edge Intelligence

Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-2-0Record21-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
75"Reach 78"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
The Fighting NerdsTeamCombat Brothers

What's at stake

Caio Borralho is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Reinier de Ridder carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Caio BorralhoNow 1789
If they win+14→ 1803
If they lose-18→ 1771
Reinier de RidderNow 1746
If they win+18→ 1764
If they lose-14→ 1732

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1703 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.44
Sig. strikes / min
2.47
56%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.36
60%
Strike defense
47%
1.28
Takedown avg.
2.56
48%
Takedown accuracy
10%
77%
Takedown defense
40%
0.43
Submission avg.
0.55

Trajectory

Caio BorralhoReinier de Ridder
170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (28%)
KO/TKO
5 (24%)
4 (22%)
Submission
13 (62%)
9 (50%)
Decision
3 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Caio Borralho67%
Reinier de Ridder 33%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Caio Borralho a 67% favorite over Reinier de Ridder in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Caio Borralho holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1789 to 1746, a 43-point edge.

Reinier de Ridder enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Caio Borralho finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Reinier de Ridder 86%.

Reinier de Ridder carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.