Combat Edge Intelligence

Caio Machado vs Mick Parkin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Caio Machado
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Caio Machado

“Bigfoot”

13-5-1Light HeavyweightUAEW

1577Solid

Tale of the tape

13-5-1Record10-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
78"Reach 79"
205 lbsWeight263 lbs
Franco Kickboxing and PankrationTeamUnit 1 Martial Arts and Fitness

What's at stake

Mick Parkin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Caio Machado carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Caio MachadoNow 1577
If they win+16→ 1593
If they lose-8→ 1569
Mick ParkinNow 1707
If they win+10→ 1717
If they lose-22→ 1685

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.82
Sig. strikes / min
4.91
54%
Strike accuracy
53%
2.87
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.15
64%
Strike defense
58%
0
Takedown avg.
1.49
0%
Takedown accuracy
42%
82%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Caio MachadoMick Parkin
1500160017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (69%)
KO/TKO
6 (60%)
2 (15%)
Submission
1 (10%)
2 (15%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Mick Parkin75%
Caio Machado 25%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Mick Parkin a 75% favorite over Caio Machado in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Mick Parkin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1577, a 130-point edge.

Caio Machado finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Mick Parkin 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.