Combat Edge Intelligence

Caleb Moctezuma vs Lincoln Strong

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-10-0Record2-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'9"
67.7"Reach-
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Legacy MMATeamManchester Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Caleb MoctezumaNow 1510
If they win+16→ 1526
If they lose-16→ 1494
Lincoln StrongNow 1514
If they win+24→ 1538
If they lose-24→ 1490

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1466 · 3 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Caleb MoctezumaLincoln Strong
150015501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
1 (50%)
1 (9%)
Submission
1 (50%)
5 (45%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Caleb Moctezuma63%
Lincoln Strong 37%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Caleb Moctezuma a 63% favorite over Lincoln Strong in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lincoln Strong's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1510 vs 1514), separated by just 4 points.

Caleb Moctezuma enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Caleb Moctezuma finishes 55% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.