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Combat Edge Intelligence

Callum Connor vs Luis Pena

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Luis Pena
us

Luis Pena

“Violent Bob Ross”

12-6-0WelterweightAFS

1639Solid

Tale of the tape

8-1-0Record12-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'3"
73"ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight161 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team Sunrise

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Callum ConnorNow 1640
If they win+24→ 1664
If they lose-24→ 1616
Luis PenaNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1505 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
3.66
Not available
Strike accuracy
47%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.12
Not available
Strike defense
51%
Not available
Takedown avg.
1.17
Not available
Takedown accuracy
33%
Not available
Takedown defense
48%
Not available
Submission avg.
1.17

Trajectory

Callum ConnorLuis Pena
16001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (63%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
1 (13%)
Submission
5 (42%)
2 (25%)
Decision
4 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Luis Pena56%
Callum Connor 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luis Pena a 56% favorite over Callum Connor in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Callum Connor's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1639), separated by just 1 points.

Callum Connor finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Luis Pena 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.