Calvin Kattar vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record28-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
72"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Max Holloway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Calvin Kattar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1713
If they lose-8→ 1689
If they win+8→ 1838
If they lose-16→ 1814
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Calvin KattarMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Max Holloway89%
Calvin Kattar 11%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 89% favorite over Calvin Kattar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Max Holloway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1830 to 1697, a 133-point edge.
Calvin Kattar enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Calvin Kattar finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.
Calvin Kattar and Max Holloway share 1 common opponent: Arnold Allen.
Calvin Kattar carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.