Calvin Kattar vs Shane Burgos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record16-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
72"Reach75"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Carlos Neto BJJTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann
What's at stake
Shane Burgos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Calvin Kattar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1710
If they lose-11→ 1686
If they win+14→ 1747
If they lose-18→ 1715
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1703 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Calvin KattarShane Burgos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Burgos72%
Calvin Kattar 28%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Burgos a 72% favorite over Calvin Kattar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Shane Burgos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1733 to 1697, a 36-point edge.
Calvin Kattar enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Calvin Kattar finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Shane Burgos 63%.
Calvin Kattar and Shane Burgos share 1 common opponent: Josh Emmett.
Shane Burgos carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.