Cara Greenwell vs Ryujin Nasukawa
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Cara Greenwell58%
Ryujin Nasukawa 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Cara Greenwell a 58% favorite over Ryujin Nasukawa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ryujin Nasukawa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1527 vs 1529), separated by just 2 points.
Cara Greenwell finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record1-0-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'5"
69"Reach-
115 lbsWeight119 lbs
Team Impact TulsaTeamTeam Teppen
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1551
If they lose-24→ 1503
If they win+24→ 1553
If they lose-24→ 1505
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1506 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cara GreenwellRyujin Nasukawa