Carla Esparza vs Maryna Moroz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record11-6-0
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'1"Height5'7"
63"Reach67"
115 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team OyamaTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Carla Esparza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Maryna Moroz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1672
If they lose-17→ 1640
If they win+17→ 1644
If they lose-15→ 1612
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1625 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carla EsparzaMaryna Moroz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Maryna Moroz58%
Carla Esparza 42%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Maryna Moroz a 58% favorite over Carla Esparza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Carla Esparza's way (46%).
Carla Esparza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1657 to 1627, a 30-point edge.
Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Maryna Moroz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Maryna Moroz 64%.
Maryna Moroz carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.