Carla Esparza vs Xiaonan Yan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record19-5-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'1"Height5'5"
63"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Team OyamaTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
Xiaonan Yan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Carla Esparza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1676
If they lose-13→ 1644
If they win+13→ 1747
If they lose-19→ 1715
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1698 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carla EsparzaXiaonan Yan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Xiaonan Yan72%
Carla Esparza 28%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Xiaonan Yan a 72% favorite over Carla Esparza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Xiaonan Yan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1734 to 1657, a 77-point edge.
Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Xiaonan Yan 47%.
Carla Esparza and Xiaonan Yan share 4 common opponents: Weili Zhang, Marina Rodriguez, Virna Jandiroba and Claudia Gadelha.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.