Carlo Pedersoli vs Dwight Grant
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record11-6-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
40.00Reach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Aurora MMA· 1580 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamAlliance MMA· 1633 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Dwight Grant is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Carlo Pedersoli carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+32→ 1549
If they lose-16→ 1501
If they win+10→ 1653
If they lose-22→ 1621
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1669 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlo PedersoliDwight Grant
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dwight Grant51%
Carlo Pedersoli 49%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Dwight Grant a 51% favorite over Carlo Pedersoli in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Dwight Grant holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1643 to 1517, a 126-point edge.
Dwight Grant enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Carlo Pedersoli finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Dwight Grant 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.