Carlos Calderon vs Lorram Esteves
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Calderon62%
Lorram Esteves 38%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Calderon a 62% favorite over Lorram Esteves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Carlos Calderon holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1612 to 1583, a 29-point edge.
Carlos Calderon finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Lorram Esteves 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record10-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'9"
71"Reach-
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
Carlos Calderon is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Lorram Esteves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1627
If they lose-17→ 1595
If they win+17→ 1600
If they lose-15→ 1568
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Carlos CalderonLorram Esteves