Carlos Calderon vs Lorram Esteves

DateOct 2, 2026

DivisionFFC Featherweight Championship

StatusScheduled

VenueMinot Air Force Base

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 2, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Fri 6:15 PM
US West (PT): Fri 3:15 PM
United Kingdom: Fri 11:15 PM
Central Europe: Sat 12:15 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 8:15 AM
Your time

Carlos CalderonThe Chief |10-4-0Carlos Calderon vs Lorram EstevesLorram Esteves10-3-0

Carlos CalderonThe Chief10-4-0

Fight Overview

Round5

Time5:00

10-4-0Record10-3-0

30Age32

5'11"Height5'9"

71"Reach-

145 lbsWeight145 lbs

FFC Featherweight ChampionshipWeight ClassFFC Featherweight Championship

Lorram Esteves10-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Carlos Calderon owns a 13-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Carlos Calderon and Lorram Esteves across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Carlos CalderonLorram Esteves

Recent form

Carlos CalderonW W L W W · +62 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Lorram EstevesW W L W W · +32 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Elo edge

Carlos Calderon1611+24 last move

Lorram Esteves1598+17 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

58%Carlos Calderon42%Lorram Esteves

Model favoriteCarlos Calderon

Elo baseline52% for Carlos Calderon

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Carlos CalderonStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Carlos Calderon leads the full model at 58%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1611 · 1598Carlos Calderon leads by 13 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1531 · 1489Carlos Calderon faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth14 · 12 fightsCarlos Calderon has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Carlos CalderonvsLorram Esteves

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Carlos Calderonsubmission leads 60% of wins

Lorram Estevessubmission leads 80% of wins

Common opponents

Cameron GravesCarlos Calderon: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Sep 7, 2025Lorram Esteves: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Feb 6, 2022

Tale of the tape

Carlos CalderonLorram Esteves

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.96

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.85

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 31%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 55%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.63

2Wins by knockout0

6Wins by submission8

2Wins by decision2

0Losses by knockout1

2Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision2

Carlos Calderon vs Lorram Esteves is a scheduled FFC Featherweight Championship fight on FURY FC 125 : FIGHT FORCE. Carlos Calderon enters with a 10-4-0 record and Lorram Esteves enters with a 10-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.