Carlos Candelario vs Jake Hadley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record12-6-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'7"
68"Reach70"
129 lbsWeight125 lbs
Underdog Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamTeam Fearless
What's at stake
Jake Hadley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Carlos Candelario carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1631
If they lose-15→ 1599
If they win+15→ 1655
If they lose-17→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos CandelarioJake Hadley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Hadley63%
Carlos Candelario 37%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Hadley a 63% favorite over Carlos Candelario in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Jake Hadley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1640 to 1614, a 26-point edge.
Carlos Candelario enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jake Hadley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carlos Candelario finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Jake Hadley 75%.
Jake Hadley carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.