Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlos Candelario vs Tatsuro Taira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record18-2-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'7"
68"Reach70"
129 lbsWeight125 lbs
Underdog Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamThe Blackbelt Japan

What's at stake

Tatsuro Taira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Carlos Candelario carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Carlos CandelarioNow 1614
If they win+23→ 1637
If they lose-9→ 1605
Tatsuro TairaNow 1790
If they win+9→ 1799
If they lose-23→ 1767

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.97
Sig. strikes / min
2.94
47%
Strike accuracy
60%
5.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.44
44%
Strike defense
47%
2.28
Takedown avg.
3.12
36%
Takedown accuracy
47%
54%
Takedown defense
45%
0.28
Submission avg.
1.56

Trajectory

Carlos CandelarioTatsuro Taira
1600165017001750180020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
6 (33%)
3 (38%)
Submission
8 (44%)
3 (38%)
Decision
4 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Tatsuro Taira92%
Carlos Candelario 8%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Tatsuro Taira a 92% favorite over Carlos Candelario in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Tatsuro Taira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1790 to 1614, a 176-point edge.

Carlos Candelario enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Carlos Candelario finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Tatsuro Taira 78%.

Tatsuro Taira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.