Carlos Condit vs Jake Ellenberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-14-0Record31-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'9"
75"Reach39,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Carlos Condit is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jake Ellenberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1740
If they lose-14→ 1716
If they win+14→ 1679
If they lose-10→ 1655
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1691 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos ConditJake Ellenberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Condit72%
Jake Ellenberger 28%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Condit a 72% favorite over Jake Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Carlos Condit holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1665, a 65-point edge.
Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Carlos Condit finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Jake Ellenberger 81%.
Carlos Condit and Jake Ellenberger share 2 common opponents: Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.