Carlos Condit vs Johny Hendricks
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-14-0Record18-8-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'9"
75"Reach69,0"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamTeam Takedown
What's at stake
Carlos Condit is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Johny Hendricks carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1741
If they lose-13→ 1717
If they win+13→ 1718
If they lose-11→ 1694
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos ConditJohny Hendricks
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Condit66%
Johny Hendricks 34%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Condit a 66% favorite over Johny Hendricks in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Carlos Condit holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1705, a 25-point edge.
Johny Hendricks enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carlos Condit finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Johny Hendricks 50%.
Carlos Condit and Johny Hendricks share 3 common opponents: Matt Brown, Neil Magny and Robbie Lawler.
Carlos Condit carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.