Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-14-0Record24-19-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
75"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamImmortal Fight Team
What's at stake
Carlos Condit is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Matt Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1738
If they lose-16→ 1714
If they win+16→ 1640
If they lose-8→ 1616
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos ConditMatt Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Condit78%
Matt Brown 22%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Condit a 78% favorite over Matt Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Carlos Condit holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1624, a 106-point edge.
Carlos Condit finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Matt Brown 92%.
Carlos Condit and Matt Brown share 1 common opponent: Court McGee.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.