Carlos Condit vs Thiago Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-14-0Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
75"Reach70,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Carlos Condit is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1737
If they lose-17→ 1713
If they win+17→ 1589
If they lose-7→ 1565
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos ConditThiago Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Condit84%
Thiago Alves 16%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Condit a 84% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Carlos Condit holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1572, a 158-point edge.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carlos Condit finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.
Carlos Condit and Thiago Alves share 1 common opponent: Max Griffin.
Carlos Condit carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.