Carlos Felipe vs Jake Collier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-4-0Record14-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
75,0"Reach78"
245 lbsWeight257 lbs
What's at stake
Carlos Felipe is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Jake Collier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1627
If they lose-19→ 1595
If they win+19→ 1567
If they lose-13→ 1535
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1610 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos FelipeJake Collier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Felipe73%
Jake Collier 27%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Felipe a 73% favorite over Jake Collier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Carlos Felipe holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1614 to 1548, a 66-point edge.
Carlos Felipe finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Jake Collier 71%.
Carlos Felipe and Jake Collier share 1 common opponent: Andrei Arlovski.
Jake Collier carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.