Carlos Hernandez vs Chance Ikei
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Hernandez58%
Chance Ikei 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Hernandez a 58% favorite over Chance Ikei in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1628 vs 1627), separated by just 1 points.
Carlos Hernandez finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Chance Ikei 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record7-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'6"
67"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight126 lbs
VFS AcademyTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1644
If they lose-16→ 1612
If they win+24→ 1651
If they lose-24→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Carlos HernandezChance Ikei