Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlos Hernandez vs Rei Tsuruya

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record11-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
67"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight126 lbs
VFS AcademyTeamThe Blackbelt Japan· 1684 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

Rei Tsuruya is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Carlos Hernandez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Carlos HernandezNow 1628
If they win+21→ 1649
If they lose-11→ 1617
Rei TsuruyaNow 1739
If they win+11→ 1750
If they lose-21→ 1718

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1600 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.90
Sig. strikes / min
2.40
46%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.43
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.91
51%
Strike defense
43%
1.60
Takedown avg.
5.03
21%
Takedown accuracy
6%
68%
Takedown defense
50%
0.18
Submission avg.
2.01

Trajectory

Carlos HernandezRei Tsuruya
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
4 (40%)
Submission
5 (45%)
6 (60%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Rei Tsuruya84%
Carlos Hernandez 16%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Rei Tsuruya a 84% favorite over Carlos Hernandez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Rei Tsuruya holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1739 to 1628, a 111-point edge.

Carlos Hernandez finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Rei Tsuruya 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.