Carlos Hernandez vs Rei Tsuruya
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record12-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
67"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight126 lbs
VFS AcademyTeamThe Blackbelt Japan· 1645 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Rei Tsuruya is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Carlos Hernandez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1650
If they lose-10→ 1618
If they win+10→ 1766
If they lose-22→ 1734
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Carlos HernandezRei Tsuruya
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rei Tsuruya79%
Carlos Hernandez 21%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Rei Tsuruya a 79% favorite over Carlos Hernandez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Rei Tsuruya holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1756 to 1628, a 128-point edge.
Rei Tsuruya enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Carlos Hernandez finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Rei Tsuruya 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.