Carlos Leal vs Michael Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-7-0Record10-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"Reach78"
169 lbsWeight170 lbs
Thai Brasil· 1655 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamKO Squad MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1731
If they lose-12→ 1707
If they win+16→ 1737
If they lose-16→ 1705
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Carlos LealMichael Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Leal56%
Michael Oliveira 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Leal a 56% favorite over Michael Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Michael Oliveira's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1719 vs 1721), separated by just 2 points.
Michael Oliveira enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Carlos Leal finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Michael Oliveira 90%.
Michael Oliveira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.