Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlos Leal vs Myktybek Orolbai

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Carlos Leal
br

Carlos Leal

“The Lion”

23-7-0WelterweightUFC

1713Good

Tale of the tape

23-7-0Record16-3-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
74"Reach74"
169 lbsWeight155 lbs
Thai Brasil· 1661 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamUluu Kyrgyz

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlos LealNow 1713
If they win+12→ 1725
If they lose-12→ 1701
Myktybek OrolbaiNow 1714
If they win+16→ 1730
If they lose-16→ 1698

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1631 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

9.57
Sig. strikes / min
0.41
51%
Strike accuracy
50%
7.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.70
53%
Strike defense
29%
0.75
Takedown avg.
0
25%
Takedown accuracy
45%
90%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Carlos LealMyktybek Orolbai
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (52%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
2 (10%)
Submission
6 (38%)
8 (38%)
Decision
3 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Myktybek Orolbai60%
Carlos Leal 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Myktybek Orolbai a 60% favorite over Carlos Leal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1713 vs 1714), separated by just 1 points.

Carlos Leal finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Myktybek Orolbai 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.