Carlos Leal vs Paul Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-7-0Record14-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
74"Reach70"
169 lbsWeight159 lbs
Thai BrasilTeamFight Academy Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1726
If they lose-12→ 1702
If they win+16→ 1729
If they lose-16→ 1697
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1631 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1625 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos LealPaul Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Leal60%
Paul Hughes 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Leal a 60% favorite over Paul Hughes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1714 vs 1713), separated by just 1 points.
Carlos Leal finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Paul Hughes 71%.
Carlos Leal carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.