Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-1-0Record16-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
City KickboxingTeamTeixeira MMA & Fitness
What's at stake
Carlos Ulberg is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Dominick Reyes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1831
If they lose-19→ 1799
If they win+19→ 1768
If they lose-13→ 1736
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1712 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos UlbergDominick Reyes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Ulberg71%
Dominick Reyes 29%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Ulberg a 71% favorite over Dominick Reyes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Carlos Ulberg holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1818 to 1749, a 69-point edge.
Carlos Ulberg enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Carlos Ulberg finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Dominick Reyes 75%.
Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes share 2 common opponents: Jiří Procházka and Jan Błachowicz.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.