Carmelo Marrero vs Ibo Aslan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record14-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
TBDReach77"
255 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGym 23
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634
If they win+16→ 1664
If they lose-16→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carmelo MarreroIbo Aslan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ibo Aslan60%
Carmelo Marrero 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ibo Aslan a 60% favorite over Carmelo Marrero in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Carmelo Marrero's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1650 vs 1648), separated by just 2 points.
Carmelo Marrero enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ibo Aslan enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Carmelo Marrero finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Ibo Aslan 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.