Combat Edge Intelligence

Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-2-0Record12-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'5"
69"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight117 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamGalpao da Luta· 1695 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

Eduarda Moura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Casey O'Neill carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Casey O'NeillNow 1682
If they win+17→ 1699
If they lose-15→ 1667
Eduarda MouraNow 1705
If they win+15→ 1720
If they lose-17→ 1688

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.89
Sig. strikes / min
2.57
52%
Strike accuracy
38%
5.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.50
58%
Strike defense
59%
1.40
Takedown avg.
3.58
35%
Takedown accuracy
6%
70%
Takedown defense
80%
0.70
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Casey O'NeillEduarda Moura
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
4 (33%)
2 (18%)
Submission
5 (42%)
5 (45%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Casey O'Neill and Eduarda Moura within a point of even.

Eduarda Moura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1682, a 23-point edge.

Casey O'Neill enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Casey O'Neill finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Eduarda Moura 75%.

Casey O'Neill carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.