Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Casey O'Neill56%
Eduarda Moura 44%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Casey O'Neill a 56% favorite over Eduarda Moura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Casey O'Neill holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1684, a 18-point edge.
Casey O'Neill enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Eduarda Moura enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Casey O'Neill finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Eduarda Moura 75%.
Casey O'Neill carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
12-2-0Record12-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'5"
69"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight117 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamGalpao da Luta· 1674 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Casey O'Neill is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Eduarda Moura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1717
If they lose-17→ 1685
If they win+17→ 1701
If they lose-15→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1590 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Casey O'NeillEduarda Moura