Casey O'Neill vs Jennifer Maia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record23-10-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'4"
69"Reach64"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamChute Boxe
What's at stake
Casey O'Neill is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jennifer Maia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1697
If they lose-17→ 1665
If they win+13→ 1673
If they lose-11→ 1649
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Casey O'NeillJennifer Maia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Casey O'Neill74%
Jennifer Maia 26%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Casey O'Neill a 74% favorite over Jennifer Maia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Casey O'Neill holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1660, a 22-point edge.
Casey O'Neill enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jennifer Maia enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Casey O'Neill finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Jennifer Maia 39%.
Casey O'Neill carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.