Casey O'Neill vs Roxanne Modafferi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record25-20-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
69"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamSyndicate MMA
What's at stake
Casey O'Neill is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Roxanne Modafferi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1693
If they lose-21→ 1661
If they win+16→ 1575
If they lose-8→ 1551
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Casey O'NeillRoxanne Modafferi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Casey O'Neill83%
Roxanne Modafferi 17%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Casey O'Neill a 83% favorite over Roxanne Modafferi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Casey O'Neill holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1559, a 123-point edge.
Casey O'Neill enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Casey O'Neill finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Roxanne Modafferi 36%.
Casey O'Neill and Roxanne Modafferi share 2 common opponents: Jennifer Maia and Antonina Shevchenko.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.