Cezar Ferreira vs Karl Roberson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-11-0Record9-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
TBDReach74"
216 lbsWeight184 lbs
MMA MastersTeamKiller B Combat Sports Academy
What's at stake
Karl Roberson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Cezar Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1604
If they lose-11→ 1580
If they win+15→ 1622
If they lose-17→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cezar FerreiraKarl Roberson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karl Roberson67%
Cezar Ferreira 33%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Karl Roberson a 67% favorite over Cezar Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Karl Roberson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1607 to 1591, a 16-point edge.
Cezar Ferreira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Karl Roberson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Cezar Ferreira finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Karl Roberson 67%.
Cezar Ferreira and Karl Roberson share 1 common opponent: Marvin Vettori.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.