Charles Johnson vs Chris Padilla
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-9-0Record17-6-1
FlyweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
70"Reach74"
125 lbsWeight155 lbs
Murcielago MMA· 1698 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamCalifornia Mixed Martial Arts· 1671 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1718
If they lose-12→ 1694
If they win+16→ 1719
If they lose-16→ 1687
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charles JohnsonChris Padilla
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Padilla55%
Charles Johnson 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Padilla a 55% favorite over Charles Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Charles Johnson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1706 vs 1703), separated by just 3 points.
Chris Padilla enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Charles Johnson finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Chris Padilla 82%.
Chris Padilla carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.