Charles Johnson vs Jake Hadley
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Charles Johnson57%
Jake Hadley 43%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Charles Johnson a 57% favorite over Jake Hadley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Charles Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1645, a 62-point edge.
Jake Hadley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Charles Johnson finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Jake Hadley 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
20-9-0Record12-6-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'7"
70"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Murcielago MMA· 1667 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamTeam Fearless
What's at stake
Charles Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jake Hadley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1717
If they lose-14→ 1693
If they win+19→ 1664
If they lose-13→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1696 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Charles JohnsonJake Hadley