Combat Edge Intelligence

Charles Johnson vs Lone’er Kavanagh

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

20-9-0Record10-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'4"
70"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight126 lbs
Murcielago MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamGreat Britain Top Team

What's at stake

Charles Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Lone’er Kavanagh carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Charles JohnsonNow 1706
If they win+11→ 1717
If they lose-13→ 1693
Lone’er KavanaghNow 1671
If they win+18→ 1689
If they lose-14→ 1657

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.54
Sig. strikes / min
4.13
50%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.88
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.94
55%
Strike defense
54%
0.47
Takedown avg.
1.12
0%
Takedown accuracy
0%
67%
Takedown defense
83%
0.39
Submission avg.
0.37

Trajectory

Charles JohnsonLone’er Kavanagh
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (40%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
4 (20%)
Submission
1 (10%)
8 (40%)
Decision
5 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Charles Johnson73%
Lone’er Kavanagh 27%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Charles Johnson a 73% favorite over Lone’er Kavanagh in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Charles Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1706 to 1671, a 35-point edge.

Charles Johnson finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Lone’er Kavanagh 50%.

Charles Johnson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.