Combat Edge Intelligence

Charles Johnson vs Rafael Estevam

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-9-0Record14-1-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
70"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight128 lbs
Murcielago MMA· 1698 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Rafael Estevam is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Charles Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Charles JohnsonNow 1706
If they win+13→ 1719
If they lose-11→ 1695
Rafael EstevamNow 1725
If they win+15→ 1740
If they lose-17→ 1708

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1580 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.54
Sig. strikes / min
2.10
50%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.88
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.59
55%
Strike defense
47%
0.47
Takedown avg.
6.01
0%
Takedown accuracy
39%
67%
Takedown defense
67%
0.39
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Charles JohnsonRafael Estevam
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (40%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
4 (20%)
Submission
3 (21%)
8 (40%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Charles Johnson62%
Rafael Estevam 38%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Charles Johnson a 62% favorite over Rafael Estevam in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Estevam's way (47%).

Rafael Estevam holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1706, a 19-point edge.

Charles Johnson finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Estevam 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.