Charles Johnson vs Rafael Estevam
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
20-9-0Record14-1-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
70"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight128 lbs
Murcielago MMA· 1676 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Rafael Estevam is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Charles Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1720
If they lose-11→ 1696
If they win+15→ 1750
If they lose-17→ 1718
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1592 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Charles JohnsonRafael Estevam
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Charles Johnson and Rafael Estevam within a point of even.
Rafael Estevam holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1735 to 1707, a 28-point edge.
Charles Johnson finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Estevam 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.