Charles Oliveira vs Donald Cerrone
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
37-11-0Record36-17-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
74"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamBMF Ranch
What's at stake
Charles Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Donald Cerrone carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1821
If they lose-15→ 1797
If they win+15→ 1725
If they lose-9→ 1701
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1766 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charles OliveiraDonald Cerrone
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Charles Oliveira84%
Donald Cerrone 16%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Charles Oliveira a 84% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Charles Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1710, a 102-point edge.
Charles Oliveira enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Charles Oliveira finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Donald Cerrone 75%.
Charles Oliveira and Donald Cerrone share 1 common opponent: Justin Gaethje.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.