Charles Oliveira vs Jeremy Stephens
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
37-11-0Record29-23-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
74"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamAlliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Charles Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+4→ 1816
If they lose-20→ 1792
If they win+20→ 1573
If they lose-4→ 1549
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1767 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Charles OliveiraJeremy Stephens
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Charles Oliveira86%
Jeremy Stephens 14%Elo baseline: 82%
The Combat Edge model makes Charles Oliveira a 86% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (82%).
Charles Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1553, a 259-point edge.
Charles Oliveira enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Charles Oliveira finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.
Charles Oliveira and Jeremy Stephens share 1 common opponent: Mateusz Gamrot.
Charles Oliveira carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.