Charlie Campbell vs Tom Nolan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters → 
Tale of the tape
9-3-0 Record 11-1-0
Lightweight Division Lightweight
6'0" Height 6'2"
72" Reach 73"
155 lbs Weight 155 lbs
Longo-Weidman MMA Team Team Compton Training Centre
What's at stake
Tom Nolan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Charlie Campbell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1660
If they lose-12→ 1628
If they win+12→ 1738
If they lose-20→ 1706
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charlie Campbell Tom Nolan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Nolan83%
Charlie Campbell17%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Nolan a 83% favorite over Charlie Campbell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Tom Nolan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1726 to 1640, a 86-point edge.
Tom Nolan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Charlie Campbell finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tom Nolan 55%.
Charlie Campbell and Tom Nolan share 1 common opponent: Alex Reyes.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.