Chase Sherman vs Jake Collier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-13-0Record14-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
78"Reach78"
265 lbsWeight257 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamPit MMA
What's at stake
Chase Sherman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jake Collier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1598
If they lose-13→ 1574
If they win+18→ 1566
If they lose-14→ 1534
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chase ShermanJake Collier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chase Sherman70%
Jake Collier 30%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Chase Sherman a 70% favorite over Jake Collier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Chase Sherman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1587 to 1548, a 39-point edge.
Chase Sherman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chase Sherman finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Jake Collier 71%.
Chase Sherman and Jake Collier share 1 common opponent: Andrei Arlovski.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.