Combat Edge Intelligence

Chelsea Chandler vs Rainn Guerrero

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-4-0Record6-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'6"
68"ReachTBD
137 lbsWeight135 lbs
Cesar Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamW4R Training Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chelsea ChandlerNow 1584
If they win+16→ 1600
If they lose-16→ 1568
Rainn GuerreroNow 1588
If they win+24→ 1612
If they lose-24→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.55
Sig. strikes / min
0.65
45%
Strike accuracy
33%
4.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0.87
40%
Strike defense
50%
0.87
Takedown avg.
3.27
60%
Takedown accuracy
100%
29%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Chelsea ChandlerRainn Guerrero
1550160020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
1 (17%)
2 (29%)
Submission
1 (17%)
3 (43%)
Decision
4 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

Chelsea Chandler56%
Rainn Guerrero 44%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Chelsea Chandler a 56% favorite over Rainn Guerrero in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rainn Guerrero's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1584 vs 1588), separated by just 4 points.

Chelsea Chandler finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Rainn Guerrero 33%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.