Combat Edge Intelligence

Chepe Mariscal vs Morgan Charrière

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-7-0Record21-12-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'8"
69″Reach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamTeam Chapa Quente

What's at stake

Chepe Mariscal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Morgan Charrière carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chepe MariscalNow 1698
If they win+10→ 1708
If they lose-14→ 1684
Morgan CharrièreNow 1643
If they win+14→ 1657
If they lose-10→ 1633

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1618 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.95
Sig. strikes / min
4.02
56%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.51
52%
Strike defense
54%
2.85
Takedown avg.
2.06
39%
Takedown accuracy
0%
73%
Takedown defense
83%
0.22
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Chepe MariscalMorgan Charrière
16001650170020242025

Win method breakdown

7 (39%)
KO/TKO
13 (62%)
3 (17%)
Submission
3 (14%)
8 (44%)
Decision
5 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Chepe Mariscal63%
Morgan Charrière 37%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Chepe Mariscal a 63% favorite over Morgan Charrière in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Chepe Mariscal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1643, a 55-point edge.

Chepe Mariscal finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Morgan Charrière 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.