Chris Barnett vs Jake Collier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record14-10-0
Super HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'9"Height6'3"
75"Reach78"
268 lbsWeight257 lbs
XFCTeamPit MMA
What's at stake
Chris Barnett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jake Collier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1642
If they lose-15→ 1618
If they win+20→ 1568
If they lose-12→ 1536
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris BarnettJake Collier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Barnett70%
Jake Collier 30%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Barnett a 70% favorite over Jake Collier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Chris Barnett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1633 to 1548, a 85-point edge.
Chris Barnett enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Barnett finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Jake Collier 71%.
Chris Barnett and Jake Collier share 2 common opponents: Martin Buday and Gian Villante.
Jake Collier carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.