Chris Curtis vs Kelvin Gastelum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-13-0Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height5'9"
75"Reach71"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamFight Ready
What's at stake
Chris Curtis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1730
If they lose-13→ 1706
If they win+13→ 1706
If they lose-11→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris CurtisKelvin Gastelum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Chris Curtis and Kelvin Gastelum within a point of even.
Chris Curtis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1719 to 1693, a 26-point edge.
Chris Curtis finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.
Chris Curtis and Kelvin Gastelum share 1 common opponent: Jack Hermansson.
Chris Curtis carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.