Chris Duncan vs Dan Hooker
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record24-14-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
71"Reach 75"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCity Kickboxing
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1739
If they lose-16→ 1707
If they win+12→ 1737
If they lose-12→ 1713
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1762 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris DuncanDan Hooker
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Duncan60%
Dan Hooker 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Duncan a 60% favorite over Dan Hooker in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dan Hooker's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1723 vs 1725), separated by just 2 points.
Dan Hooker enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Dan Hooker 75%.
Dan Hooker carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.