Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Duncan vs Genki Sudo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Chris Duncan

Chris Duncan

“The Problem”

15-3-0LightweightUFC

1722Good
Genki Sudo
jp

Genki Sudo

“Neo-Samurai”

15-4-2LightweightK-1

1723Good

Tale of the tape

15-3-0Record15-4-2
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamBeverly Hills Jiu-Jitsu Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chris DuncanNow 1722
If they win+16→ 1738
If they lose-16→ 1706
Genki SudoNow 1723
If they win+16→ 1739
If they lose-16→ 1707

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1657 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1558 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.02
Sig. strikes / min
1.55
46%
Strike accuracy
39%
4.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.23
51%
Strike defense
33%
3.27
Takedown avg.
3.58
43%
Takedown accuracy
60%
50%
Takedown defense
50%
0.65
Submission avg.
4.17

Trajectory

Chris DuncanGenki Sudo
16501700175020042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (47%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
4 (27%)
Submission
11 (73%)
4 (27%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Chris Duncan70%
Genki Sudo 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Chris Duncan a 70% favorite over Genki Sudo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Genki Sudo's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1722 vs 1723), separated by just 1 points.

Genki Sudo enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Chris Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Genki Sudo 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.