Chris Duncan vs Mateusz Rębecki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record20-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'7"
71"Reach66"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1738
If they lose-16→ 1706
If they win+12→ 1739
If they lose-12→ 1715
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1657 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris DuncanMateusz Rębecki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Duncan51%
Mateusz Rębecki 49%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Duncan a 51% favorite over Mateusz Rębecki in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mateusz Rębecki's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1722 vs 1727), separated by just 5 points.
Mateusz Rębecki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Chris Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Mateusz Rębecki 80%.
Chris Duncan carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.