Chris Duncan vs Mateusz Rębecki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'7"
71"Reach66"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Mateusz Rębecki is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Chris Duncan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1741
If they lose-15→ 1709
If they win+11→ 1755
If they lose-13→ 1731
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1691 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris DuncanMateusz Rębecki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mateusz Rębecki52%
Chris Duncan 48%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Mateusz Rębecki a 52% favorite over Chris Duncan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Mateusz Rębecki holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1724, a 20-point edge.
Chris Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Mateusz Rębecki 81%.
Chris Duncan carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.