Chris Duncan vs Nazareno Malegarie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record29-6-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'8"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Tavares
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1739
If they lose-16→ 1707
If they win+12→ 1734
If they lose-12→ 1710
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris DuncanNazareno Malegarie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Duncan70%
Nazareno Malegarie 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Duncan a 70% favorite over Nazareno Malegarie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1723 vs 1722), separated by just 1 points.
Chris Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Nazareno Malegarie 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.